這是我修EMBA 國際金融的課程
這作業題目可對學理工的我有些殘忍
UIRP 是啥東西 ?? 傷腦筋
有哪個高手會以下題目呢
1. According the Monetary Approach to Exchange Rates, how would the exchange rate of NT dollar against the U$ be affected by a rise of interest rates in Taiwan ? How would you reconcile your answer with the prediction of the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity ?
2. Investors must pay a x % tax on interest earnings. Suppose the interest rates on NT dollar and US dollar are 10% and 5% respectively. According to UIRP, will N.T. dollar depreciate or appreciate when the tax rate (x%) is raised from 10% to 20%? Explain your answer?
3. A bank quotes the following rates to its clients:
Buying rate of spot U$ = 30 NT; Selling rate of spot U$ = 30.1 NT. Buying rate of 1-year forward U$ = 24 NT; Selling rate of 1-year forward U$ = 24.1 NT; Interest rate on 1 year NT deposit = 22 %; Interest rate on 1 year U$ deposit =42%.. You have 100 million NT for deposits. Exchange gains are taxed at 25% and exchange losses are deductible from tax while interest income is exempt from tax. Arrange a deal using forward to increase your returns.
翻譯如下
1.用貨幣學派的匯率決定理論來解釋匯率,台幣匯率兌換美元匯率如何受利率上升的影響。並請使用含險的利率平價理論(Uncovered Interest Rate Parity; UIRP)來解釋(預測)之。
2. 假設投資者的利息所得上支付x%的稅,假設台幣及美元的利率分別為10%及5%,根據UIRP,說明當稅率從10%升高至20%時,台幣是會升值還是貶值? 3. 假設你有一億台幣,匯率所得須課以25%稅率,匯率損失可扣除,利息收入是免稅的。安排一場足以增加你報酬的遠期外匯的交易。 Buying rate of spot匯率買價 U$ = 30 NT Selling rate of spot匯率賣價 U$ = 30.1 NT. Buying rate of 1-year forward一年期的遠期買權外匯價格 U$ = 24.0 NT Selling rate of 1-year forward一年期的遠期賣權外匯價格 U$ = 24.1 NT Ft+1 台幣的一年存款利率 = 22 % 、 美金一年存款利率 = 42%

之前在基智網有看過剛好有筆記
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利率與匯率的關係
UIRP模型
本國利率 = 外國利率 + (預期匯率-即期匯率)/即期匯率
這是很有名預測"長期匯率走勢"的工具。
Ex:
美國利率5%,台灣3%
3% = 5% + (Ee-33)/33
其他條件不變下
Ee(預期匯率) = 32.34
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幫你找的網頁有
http://www.wretch.cc/blog/princearthas&article_id=9588321
[版主回覆11/16/2007 19:11:52]太感激了
你可來的真是時後阿
晴天
這是我第三題的答案
台幣一億 利率 22%
定存一年得利息 = NT 22,000,000
最後淨收益為 NT 22,000,000
所以只要拿一元台幣做遠期外匯交易 就賺將近 NT 22,000,000 台幣定存的利息
這就是我的投資方法 a deal using forward to increase MY returns
好吧 , 驗證一下
狀況二 . 如果全部錢都立刻換美金 , 並在遠期市場預先賣出美金
一億台幣換美金 得 US 3,322,259.1
美金再拿去定存 得 US 3322259 * 42% = US 1,395,348.8 元美金的利息
在遠期市場預先賣出美金 , 匯率 24.0
得 NT (3,322,259.1 + 1,395,348.8 ) * 24.0 = NT 113,222,591.4
最後淨收益為 NT 13,222,591.4
收益比不上第一個方法 NT 22,000,000
狀況三 . 如果全部錢都在遠期市場預先買進美金 ,不做其他用途
外匯獲利 = US ( 100,000,000/24.1 - 100,000,000/30.1 ) * (1-25%) = US 620,338.8
獲利比狀況二的 US 1,395,348.8 元美金的利息 還少
所以是最差的投資
驗算結果
還是第一種方法最好
只花一元做遠期外匯交易